wash_minn

The More things change…

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The first Monday night game of 2006 matched two teams who finished the 2005 season with winning records: The Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
visiting the Washington Redskins (10-6). Both teams had experienced coaching changes over the off-season with Minnesota’s nearly complete
revamping being the more extreme, led by new Head Coach Brad Childress. Washington hired Al Saunders after his successful tenure at
Kansas City, giving him the title of “Associate Head Coach – Offense”. Among other assignments, Saunders now holds the responsibility of
making offensive playcalls throughout the game. Would these fresh faces lead to optimal playcalling in the first game of the 2006 season? Let's
take a look.

Tables 1 and 2 show the “critical” or “directional” playcalls throughout the game for Minnesota and Washington respectively. Here we include all
kickoffs, extra points, and 4th down decisions. Keep in mind that ZEUS analysis has shown that typical NFL teams
(nearly independent of win-loss record) cost themselves between 0.6 and 1.25 wins per regular season due to suboptimal playcalls in critical
situations. Divided by a 16 game season that corresponds to approximately 4% and 8% "Game Winning Chance" (GWC) error per contest.

Table 1. Minnesota’s directional playcalls.

Table 2. Washington’s directional playcalls.

Minnesota faced 15 critical situations and made two errors totaling 4.2% GWC. Washington faired much worse: 11.1% GWC sacrificed in 15
opportunities. (For the statistically inclined, the standard deviations on these two numbers are 0.23% and 0.14% respectively.) Not a good start
to the 2006 season for either team, particularly the Redskins. Where did the teams go wrong? For all six errors (two by the Vikings and four by
the Skins), the coaches chose the conservative route when the aggressive path would have been more productive on average.

Minnesota opted for a field goal at the beginning of the 4th quarter with a tie score, facing 4th and 10 from the Washington 36 yardline
(Minnesota 64 yardline as shown in Table 1). ZEUS™ says a pass play will lead to more wins. Later in the quarter (7:45 remaining) they punted
on 4th and 2 from the Washington 44 when a running play would have been more successful over the long haul.

Washington’s errors were consistent. On three occasions in various times of the game (1st quarter, 2nd quarter, and 3rd quarter) with 4th down
inside the Viking 10 yardline they settled for chipshot fieldgoals when going for the first down (and/or touchdown) was the proper choice.

Did the Redskins’ suboptimal playcalling in these critical situations cost them the game?
That is impossible to answer. Nothing guarantees a win, not even perfect playcalling. But over nine similarly contested games they would win
(on average) one more game by following ZEUS’s recommendations under similar circumstances.

Likewise Minnesota’s lower aggregate error rate didn’t win the game outright, although it did help. But before they get too comfortable with the
fact that they outperformed the Skins in critical playcalling we point out that Washington actually faced tougher decisions. For example,
Minnesota never had a 4th and short inside Redskin 30 yardline. Would the Vikings have made different decisions if given the critical situations
Washington faced? We’ll never know, but their pattern in directional decisions throughout the game was consistently conservative. It turns out
that most of the time the conservative decision was right. Let’s see how they do the next 15 games.

It is worth noting that this game was ripe for significant errors, having been a close game throughout. Blowouts offer few opportunities for
sizable errors because when you’re way ahead (or way behind), the game is nearly decided and there’s not much at stake in absolute (game
winning chance) terms. Secondly, if these teams perform similarly to last year, they stand to gain or lose a huge amount from their playcalling
decisions since for a 9-7 or 10-6 team, one extra win can make the difference between making the playoffs or going home, and if solidly in the
playoffs, an extra win can lead to a home game -- another colossal payout.

TEAM	TIMEOUT OFFENSE	TIMEOUT DEFENSE	SCORE DIFF	QUARTER	MINUTES	SECONDS	YARDLINE	DOWN	YARDS- TO-FIRST	ACTUAL CALL	ZEUS CALL	ERROR
MINN	3	3	6	1	10	8	98			1 pt conv.	1 pt conv.	0
MINN	3	3	6	1	10	8	30			normal KO	normal KO	0
MINN	3	2	3	2	14	47	41	4	8	punt	punt	0
MINN	3	2	3	2	14	41	36	4	13	punt	punt	0
MINN	3	2	3	2	12	26	28	4	18	punt	punt	0
MINN	3	2	-4	2	6	26	40	4	9	punt	punt	0
MINN	3	0	-4	2	2	30	21	4	7	punt	punt	0
MINN	0	0	-7	2	0	3	72	4	4	FG	FG	0
MINN	3	3	-4	3	15	0	30			normal KO	normal KO	0
MINN	3	3	2	3	9	45	98			1 pt conv.	1 pt conv.	0
MINN	3	3	3	3	9	45	30			normal KO	normal KO	0
MINN	3	3	0	4	14	56	64	4	10	FG	*pass*	-2.0
MINN	3	3	0	4	7	45	56	4	2	*punt*	*run*	-2.2
MINN	2	0	0	4	1	4	87	4	12	FG	FG	0
MINN	2	0	3	4	1	4	30			normal KO	normal KO	0
TOTAL												-4.2% GWC

TEAM	TIMEOUT OFFENSE	TIMEOUT DEFENSE	SCORE DIFF	QUARTER	MINUTES	SECONDS	YARDLINE	DOWN	YARDS- TO-FIRST	ACTUAL CALL	ZEUS CALL	ERROR
WASH	3	3	0	1	15	0	30			normal KO	normal KO	0
WASH	2	3	-6	1	1	58	91	4	3	FG	*pass*	-3.2
WASH	2	3	-3	1	1	58	30			normal KO	normal KO	0
WASH	2	3	-3	2	13	51	32	4	4	punt	punt	0
WASH	2	3	3	2	8	11	98			1 pt conv.	1 pt conv.	0
WASH	2	3	4	2	8	11	30			normal KO	normal KO	0
WASH	2	3	4	2	4	50	31	4	4	punt	punt	0
WASH	0	3	4	2	1	9	91	4	9	FG	*pass*	-1.7
WASH	0	3	7	2	1	9	30			normal KO	normal KO	0
WASH	3	3	4	3	14	1	26	4	14	punt	punt	0
WASH	3	3	-3	3	4	28	96	4	3	FG	*pass*	-5.8
WASH	3	3	0	3	4	28	30			normal KO	normal KO	0
WASH	3	3	0	4	11	59	49	4	18	punt	punt	0
WASH	3	3	0	4	5	42	36	4	6	*punt*	*pass*	-0.4
WASH	0	2	-3	4	0	17	70	4	1	FG	FG	0
TOTAL												-11.1% GWC