September 8, 2006 Pittsburgh Opens Season with a Controversial Win It didn’t take long for the drama to show up in the 2006/2007 season.  Everyone is talking about the 87 yard pass play that resulted in the go ahead score for the Steelers last night.  The Steelers were credited with a touchdown when tight end Heath Miller apparently stepped out of bounds at the 2 yard-line.  What ensued was a controversy around whether or not Nick Saban should have been able to challenge the call.  According to the referee, Walt Coleman, the red flag showed up too late.  So how much did missing the challenge hurt the Dolphins and what was their proper strategy at the time of the score? According to ZEUS, here are the pertinent numbers: 1.        After a successful challenge, Pittsburgh is facing a 1st and goal on the Miami 2 yard line and trailing 17-14.  Both teams will have 2 timeouts remaining       with about 6:25 on the clock.       Miami’s GWC = 36% 2.        There is no challenge and the touchdown is upheld.  Miami trails 21-17 and both teams have 2 timeouts.       Miami’s GWC = 30.2% 3.        The challenge is requested in time and proves unsuccessful.  In hindsight we know this couldn’t have been the case but Nick Saban wasn’t sure at the       moment of the score.  The only difference from case #2 is that now Miami will only have 1 timeout remaining.       Miami’s GWC = 29.1% So there you have it.  Not knowing for sure that Heath Miller did step out of bounds, Nick Saban would be correct to challenge if he believed the probability of success was greater than 16% (or 1/6).  This is because he risks 1.1% GWC to gain 5.8% GWC. As it turns out, by not getting his red flag out quickly enough he cost his team 5.8% GWC.  That is a VERY significant blunder.  As we have stated before, an aggregate per game error of only 6.25% GWC will cost a team, on average, one game per season!  Here, Miami gave up nearly that amount in one play.