Panthers Hidden Errors Exposed PigSkinRevolution.com Let’s give the Bears credit for a game well played this weekend, but the score and final result may have been very different had the Panthers not made both overt and hidden errors.  Ask any fan worth his salt and he’d say the Panther’s lost the game because of two very costly interceptions thrown in the first quarter.  We won’t disagree on the magnitude of those two errors, but there was another set of key errors that most avid fans missed.  Fortunately, PigSkinRevolution. com has a tool named ZEUS that ran the analysis on the game and exposed some critical errors that eluded most mere mortals.  Read on to see how fourth down risk aversion amounted to an error just as costly as either of those two interceptions. First we will examine just how much those 2 interceptions hurt the Panthers.  By comparing the actual result against a simple incompletion, we can determine just how much expected “Game Winning Chance” (GWC) was squandered in each situation.  In the first instance, the Panthers were facing a 3rd and 10 when the turnover resulted in a 1st and goal for the Bears on the Panther’s 8 yard line.  This error cost the Panthers approximately 9% GWC right out of the gate.   Several minutes later the Panthers were intercepted again from a 3rd and 2 on their own 28 yard line.  This time the Bears returned the ball to the Panther’s 18 yard line which cost Carolina another 7% GWC.  Before the Panther’s could get out of the first quarter, they gave up a staggering 16% GWC on just 2 plays!   Now let’s see just how much GWC was squandered as a result of 4th down risk aversion throughout the game.  The Bears boast one of the top defenses against both the pass and the rush, and to complicate matters the Panthers have been struggling to move the ball on the ground this season.  Not surprisingly, the Panthers showed little confidence in their rushing game as they punted the ball away 7 times.  Trailing 7-0 and just 2.5 minutes into the game, ZEUS charges the panthers with a 2.3% GWC error for punting the ball.  The model fully considers the team’s respective ranks on offense and defense.  Most importantly, it factors those strengths and weaknesses into the later stages of the game as well.  The Panthers cost themselves another 1.5% GWC on a similar 4th and short during the second quarter.   Finally, with 8:31 remaining in the game and facing a 4th and 13 on the Bear’s 21 yard line, the Panthers kick a successful field goal.  Nice to finally get something on the scoreboard but according to ZEUS this is the most costly voluntary error of the game (2.5% GWC).  To see why the model rates this as such a significant error, one only needs to look at the clock and score differential.  The Panther’s are facing a major uphill battle as they kick the ball away trailing 13 – 3 with only 8 minutes remaining.  Although they are not a favorite to succeed on the long 4th down, it is clearly the optimal path toward winning the game. By the time the final whistle is blown, the Panther’s have cost themselves an aggregate of 8% GWC on critical play- calling decisions alone.  Most fans will remember the 2 interceptions as representing the key difference in the outcome of the game.   However, it should now be clear that the critical 4th down decision errors also had a significant impact on the final result.  To an informed fan, these critical play calling errors should be just as upsetting as either of those interceptions.