September 7, 2006 An Open Letter to the NFL As the new season gets underway, there is a 15,000lb elephant standing on the 50 yard line of every stadium in the NFL and no one seems to be bothered.   Some of the coaches see it, many of the front office personnel see it and even some of the owners know it's there.  They discuss it amongst themselves and conclude that if no one else is trying to address the problem, why should they?  The playing field is level after all. I wish we were referring to the half-time show but we are not.  Figuratively, we are referring to technology, or more specifically the resistance to proven technology.  Historically, if an NFL owner decides he wants to build a top tier franchise he will focus on 2 specific areas.  Hire the best coach and find the best players.  A lot of dollars are dropped in these 2 buckets as well they should be.  However, there is a 3rd bucket (not nearly as deep as the other 2) that warrants serious consideration.  That is of course technology. ZEUS has now been in existence as a functioning analytical tool for 3 years.  During that time we have embarked on an extraordinary journey.  We have continually refined our model to more accurately assess critical play-calling decisions.  We have also solicited the input of some of the NFL’s brightest minds and incorporated many of their suggestions into our applications.  And, we have tirelessly tested the model’s capabilities against the current state of NFL strategy. Here are the facts: 1.       Many facets of the NFL game are amenable to the ZEUS computer model and can be accurately converted to a standard “Game Winning Chance        Expectation” or GWC unit.  This includes:     A.        Binary or Directional Play-Calling                 i.        4th downs                ii.        Penalty acceptance               iii.        Timeout usage               iv.        P.A.T.                v.        Kickoffs     B.        Relative Player valuations across multiple positions     C.        Objective assessment on the cost of errors and turnovers 2.       ZEUS can place in proper perspective the importance of weather, emotional momentum, and the statistical strengths and weaknesses of the opposing     teams in its recommendations. 3.       A coach, or any other human for that matter, can not process information as          accurately or as quickly as ZEUS 4.       ZEUS can easily be used in a real-time format as most critical play-calling     decisions can be accurately analyzed in a matter of seconds for both the input and the output. 5.       There is great parity among the conventional strategies of NFL coaches 6.       Suboptimal play-calling in critical decisions are hurting every NFL team.                  - The range of cost is between 0.5 and 1.25 expected wins per regular                           season on 4th down, kick off, P.A.T and timeout decisions alone! 7.       ZEUS does not represent someone’s opinion.  It is a high powered analytical engine for processing extremely complicated, multi-variable problems.     We are inputting much of the same statistical information that is available to all NFL teams.  In fact, in many cases we are applying similar logic and     assumptions.  The difference is ZEUS can process more information, at a far greater depth, at a far greater speed and more accurately than any     human coach.  Most importantly, it can determine whether its own recommendations are statistically reliable. 8.       We have no delusions of replacing the need for a human coach with ZEUS.  It is rather an enhancement to the coach and front office.  All     recommendations are to be interpreted and implemented by the coaching staff. 9.       ZEUS is available for licensing.  ZEUS can be easily installed and  implemented.   ZEUS can remove costly critical play errors in their entirety while     providing many valuable insights into cutting edge strategy. 10.     Implementing ZEUS does not make  play-calling choices any more transparent to your opponent than they are today.  This is due to the class of     (directional) problems that ZEUS most accurately examines.  Also, every licensee will use the model in their own unique way with their own     customization inputs. Technological revolutions never happen over night but they do happen.  If there is a better, more efficient and more profitable way to do something, it is only a matter of time before adoption.  We are convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that ZEUS represents this technological revolution for the NFL.  Our methodology is forthright and if there are well informed detractors, we welcome the debate.  If there is a better way to assess critical play-calling strategies in the NFL, we would not be too proud to embrace it.  That, after all, is good science.  That being said, we are not holding our breath that a better tool will come into existence anytime soon and neither should you.  We remain thoroughly convinced of the value proposition that ZEUS represents and can only hope that you too will realize it in the near future. As the 2006-2007 season gets underway this evening there is little indication that anything will change.....yet.  The paradigm may be shaking a bit but we have yet to detect any significant movement.  In the meantime, we will be watching closely and reporting our findings.  Stay tuned to www.pigskinrevolution. com for another exciting season of analysis and entertaining commentaries.