SUNDAY NIGHT SPOTLIGHT
pigskinrevolution.com
NBC has returned to NFL coverage in a big way, not only snaring the popular
and competition free Sunday night timeslot, but getting to pick and choose
the games they show, changing the best battles of the afternoons into
evening marquees. Sunday they showed the best matchup of the first half
of the 2006 season: Indianapolis at New England, with a combined record of
13-1.
We didn't have to wait long for an interesting critical situation: New
England, trailing by 7 at the end of the 1st quarter faced 4th and 3 at the
Indianapolis 19 yardline. A 37-yard fieldgoal would be the near unanimous
call amongst the rank-and-file NFL coaches, but Bill Belichick
surprised almost everyone by keeping his offense on the field, calling a
pass play which succeded in a 14 yard gain and eventually the tying TD.
ZEUS, not surprisingly, liked the call by a bit over 1% game winning chance
(GWC) expectation over the rote fieldgoal attempt. John Madden, not wanting
to disagree with a triple ringbearer, concurred with the rationale
"Indianapolis is going to put a lot of points on the board. You're not going
to keep up by settling for three." This from a guy who just a few weeks ago
argued for going for a FG from the opponent 15 while trailing by 14. "The first
points are the toughest. You gotta put points on the board."
Indy faced a critical decision near the end of the half, 1:50 remaining, score tied,
with 4th and 3 from the New England 5. (The Colts had two timeouts remainging to the
Patriots' three.) Consistent with their conservative action in a similar situation
a couple weeks back (against the Jaguars), Indy took the "sure" 3-points, a
2% GWC error according to ZEUS. It's not that far to the endzone, and when the
attempt fails New England will be facing a 95 yard drive. If the Colts settle
for 3, New England's subsequent field position after the kickoff with a full
slate of timeouts will give them a reasonable chance to retie the game.
With 6:03 remaining in the game, trailing by 10, New England faced 4th and 8
from the Colts 8 yardline. If you believe the contrarian drones, you'd expect
ZEUS to say the correct decision is to go for the TD. There's a lot more to
4th down playcalling than simply going for it, despite what some high
profile internet journalists would have you believe. ZEUS says the field
goal attempt is 1.5% GWC better than the TD try, which is quite a chunk of
the approximately 10% chances New England has of actually winning the game
from here.
Finally let's take a look at a 3rd down decision on Indy's next series. With
2:31 remaining in the game after New England had used its last timeout, Indy faced 3rd and
5 at the Patriot 28. Everyone knows that the Colts will try the FG if the first
down isn't acquired, so they have one play to pick up the five yards. A pass
would give them their highest chance of succeding, but there is a downside to
that call -- the clock. An incomplete pass will give New England one or two
more plays to succeed after Indy's FG attempt. (They pretty much have to rely
on Vinatieri missing the long kick to have any chance.) Indy chose the run
which was stopped at the line of scrimmage and then, as the Pats scripted, the
Field Goal went wide right. ZEUS calls the decision a tossup, with the increased
burn of clock from the run offsetting the lower likelihood of success compared
to a pass. Brady's subsequent throw to the wrong team squelched New England's
remaining chances and Indianapolis, for the second year in a row, was the
only unbeaten team halfway through the regular season.