1. What is End Game Technologies, LLC ? End Game Technologies, LLC was established in 2001 through the collaborative efforts of Frank Frigo and Chuck Bower PhD The goal is to provide leading edge Game Theory tactics (proven methods in other competitive games) to professional sports. ZEUS™ is their inaugural effort which literally revolutionizes the way football is played. Please see Bios. 2. How does ZEUS™ work, and why are the model’s recommendations reliable? ZEUS™ was built from the ground up through extensive research into NFL game logs, historical statistics and the behavioral traits of coaches. The core model replicates, with amazing accuracy, the play-calling and statistical outputs of typical NFL teams. ZEUS™ has the capability of being customized for the offensive and defensive attributes of a subject team and its opponent. Then, with the capability of performing more than 1,000,000 game simulations in a matter of seconds, critical play choices can be assessed on their relative merits. ZEUS™ takes the relative output of the simulation and performs a diligent analysis of statistical significance and skill sensitivity. (see F.A.Q. #4). There is simply not a more accurate way to assess a critical 4th down play or a P.A.T. A concise overview from Wikipedia 3. Why are all plays assessed in terms of “Game Winning Chance” expectations rather than actual results? Every decision in a competitive sport should be based upon the optimization of Game Winning Chances (“GWC”). However, coaches often lose sight of this goal by focusing on points rather than the statistical expectation of winning. Points certainly matter in an NFL game, but not all points have the same value. Consider a team trailing by 2 points on the last play of the game at their opponents 2 yard line: the extra 4 points that come with a touchdown in lieu of a field goal have no value whatsoever. The field goal is the optimal GWC choice. In this simple example, if the team went for the TD and succeeded they would still be charged with a large blunder even though it didn’t affect the outcome of the game. This is because the chosen play will lose on average. ZEUS™ focuses on the methodology of optimal play-calling not the short term results. Over the course of a long season, every small piece of GWC matters. An example of a GWC Equity Progression from the 2004 AFC Championship Game analyzed by ZEUS is shown here. 4. Does ZEUS™ take into account the relative strengths and weaknesses on offense and defense? Yes, while the core model is built upon the typical offensive and defensive attributes of NFL teams, the subject team and its opponent can be customized with respect to their rank in passing, rushing, punting and kicking. By making these pre-game adjustments, ZEUS™ can more accurately assess the relative merits of critical play choices. 5. Aren’t field conditions, wind and emotional momentum important factors? These factors certainly matter, and depending on the specific play-calling decision they may matter more or less. Field conditions and wind often have neutralizing effects with respect to GWC early in the game because both teams will likely face their fair share of adverse conditions. The higher the confidence level, the less likely a ZEUS™ recommendation should be overturned by extraneous factors. As always, we encourage the coaches discretion in such matters. Emotional momentum is a 2-way street and coaches often focus on only the negative side of this equation. A critical 4th down success may inject the offensive team with positive momentum just as a failure to convert may discourage them. 6. Where do the statistical assumptions come from? Fortunately, very good statistical data is accessible from the NFL on a team-by-team basis. Using this data, distribution curves were developed for the probabilistic outcomes of every possible play choice. Through continued refinement, a core model was developed that very accurately replicates how typical NFL teams perform against each other. After performing millions of simulations, a comparison of several key statistics was conducted against actual NFL historical data. In categories such as average score differential, point outputs, time of possession, rushing and passing yardage, kicking distances and field goal success rates, the results of ZEUS™ were “spot on”. This provided the utmost confidence in the core model before allowing it to be used to assess critical play calling. 7. What do you mean by Binary or Directional play choices? Critical choices in football often center on two distinct, or directional play paths. A coach must decide to go for the first down or punt on a ‘4th and short’. A coach must also assess the relative merits of a 1pt. or 2pt. conversion. Such choices take distinctly different routes toward victory and each choice has its own set of risk/reward considerations. These are often extremely complex decisions that cannot be accurately evaluated in a real-time context without the use of technological assistance. A simple example of a binary decision tree is represented here. 8. Isn’t football inherently different than other game theory disciplines? Surprisingly, games like Chess and Backgammon are tactically very similar to games like football and baseball. While the “physical” nature of the game is very different, the “situational” nature is strikingly similar. A football coach is constantly making decisions with respect to multiple variables (Score, Field Position, Down, Yards to 1st, etc.). Each of these decisions should be based on providing his team with the highest probability of winning the game (GWC). No decision, whether correct or incorrect provides guarantees….only expected outcomes. The expected outcomes are affected by play choices, skill differentials and often random elements. Sophisticated computer models and simulations were introduced in chess and backgammon more than 20 years ago and much has been learned. To say that technology has revolutionized these games would be an understatement. Just as the ZEUS™ model provides a sophisticated “look-ahead” in football analysis, backgammon and chess models have been solving previously unmanageable problems with great accuracy for 2 decades. There is absolutely no reason that ZEUS™ can not have an equally revolutionary impact on professional football and baseball. 9. How meaningful is a single play error of 2 –3% ? To put it in proper perspective, two errors per game (each with a 3% magnitude) would cost a typical NFL team one full game per (regular) season. An analysis was performed on the ZEUS™ cumulative error rates for a number of NFL teams during the 2003 season. On critical 4th down and P.A.T. decisions alone, the cost of errors ranged between 0.6 and 1.25 games for the season. This is the approximate difference between a 9-7 record and a 10-6 record. Playoff prospects often hinge on such differences. 10. What else can ZEUS™ do? 4th down play-calling and P.A.T. decisions are only a small part of the ZEUS™ value proposition to an NFL organization. With respect to real-time decisions, ZEUS™ can also assess on-side vs. regular kickoffs, penalty acceptance, timeouts and replay appeals. While 4th down and binary play-calling has been the major focus of the application, a wealth of conceptual information is available regarding 1 –3 down decisions and clock management. A number of important individual and team statistics can be compared and converted to GWC units. Additionally, players can be measured in GWC impact across multiple positions. For example, the #1 ranked kicker in the NFL could be compared to the #32 ranked kicker specifically on their seasonal GWC impact. This is especially important in calculating value (salary cost/expected win) ratios before the draft or an important trade. During the 2005/2006 season EndGame Technologies will be launching the ZEUS™ "Critical Call Index". This ranking system will objectively measure coaching performances in critical play-calling decisions. |