Could Dallas' Good Fortune Have Been Even Better? Examining an On-Side Kick Pigskinrevolution.com An interesting situation was presented to us this past week by one of our readers.  When Dallas played Tennessee 2 weeks ago they found themselves in a somewhat unusual circumstance .  After the Titans were assessed 30 yards of penalties for unsportsmanlike conduct, Dallas faced an opportunistic kicking situation. Score:                Dallas leads 21 - 7 Ball Position:     Dallas kicking off from the Titan's 40 yard line Clock:                12 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter Timeouts:           Dallas 3, Tennessee 3 As the reader pointed out, the Cowboys may have been in an ideal situation to attempt an on-side kick.  However, they chose to kick deep and the Titans received the ball on the 6 yard line and returned it to the 11 yard line.  Did the Cowboys miss a golden opportunity?  For a frame of reference, here are some of the potential outcomes with the corresponding ZEUS GWC for Dallas: Dallas kicks into the end zone resulting in a touchback:                                GWC= 89.9% Dallas advances the ball (on-side kick) 10 yards and recovers:                   GWC= 93.8% Dallas advances the ball 10 yards and the Titans recover:                            GWC= 88.9% Dallas kicks and downs the ball on the Titans 1 yard line (best case):         GWC= 92.1% Dallas kicks and the Titans take over on the 11 yard line (actual case):      GWC= 90.7% Dallas kicks and the Titans return the ball to the 50 yard line:                        GWC= 86.7% Dallas kicks and the Titans return the ball for a touchdown (worst case):     GWC= 72.2% First we can calculate the weighted GWC for the on-side kick strategy.  For this we will assume a conservative recovery rate of 25%.  Therefore (.25 x 93.8) + (.75 x 88.9) = 90.12%  Based on what actually occurred (the ball being kicked to the 11 yard line), Dallas came out better with the normal kick-off.  Even a touchback only costs the Cowboys about 0.2% GWC vs the on-side kick.  The breakeven point looks to be about the Titans 16 yard line.  The big question is: Can the Cowboys expect to  stop the Titans inside the 16 yard-line on average.  According to ZEUS it is a toss up  Weighing all of the possible outcomes (including long returns), ZEUS rates the onside-kick in a dead heat with the normal kickoff. We find this result somewhat surprising.  As the reader suggested, the Cowboys seem to risk very little (perhaps 10 yards of field position) to take a crack at a turnover - a strategy in which they should be successful approximately 25% of the time.  The answer may lie in the fact that the Cowboys are already in a commanding position and relatively little GWC (~10%) is required to finish the Titans off.  Also, the kicking position is somewhat advantageous for stopping the Titans inside the 20 yard line as the special-team defenders will not have very far to travel.   All in all, ZEUS can not disagree with the Cowboy's decision although it is a close one.  We are only left wondering if Bill Parcells and company even considered what was a very legitimate option.