ARE YOU READY FOR A REVOLUTION?
PigSkinRevolution.com
What if we told you that a revolution was about to change the game of football forever? What if we also told you that at the
head of this revolution was a piece of software as powerful as the mythical god it was named for, Zeus™? You may be saying
that I don’t believe in your gods, but read the following before you prematurely condemn yourself to Hades.
Roll back the calendar to September 26th, 2004. The Kansas City Chiefs were searching for their first win of the young
season against the Houston Texans. Leading 7-3 with two minutes remaining in the first half, the Chiefs faced 4th and 2 from
Houston’s 6-yard line. Possessing one of the best running games in the NFL, head Coach Dick Vermeil eschewed the easy 3
points and sent Priest Holmes over the right side to try for a chance at 7. Houston’s defense held and eventually the Texans
prevailed 24-21. After the game Coach Vermeil retrospected: “Last week, I did the opposite twice… but when it was all said
and done I felt it drained some of the emotion from my players when it didn’t work…. So, I made up my mind if we got into a
similar situation I’d give them a chance to go. In the end it costs us a football game or a tie to go into overtime. I accept full
responsibility.”
Fast-forward 13 months. On the road against the rival San Diego Chargers, the Chiefs are battling to stay in second place in
the toughest division in the NFL. Shortly into the fourth quarter, trailing by 11, the Chiefs arrive at 4th and 2 from the Chargers 4
yard line. After calling a timeout for a collaborative discussion amongst the coaches, Vermeil decides to go for three points to
get within eight of tying the game. Lawrence Tynes makes the chip shot but San Diego proceeds to score a touchdown on
their next possession and a late Kansas City touchdown is not enough to pull out the struggle. Again Vermeil faces the
inevitable media questions. This time he responds: “I thought about going for it but it was two yards to go. If it had been a foot
or a yard to go I might have gone for it. But at that time I felt it was important to get the three points. That put (us) within eight….”
At first glance the two situations above seem similar – fourth down with two yards to go for the first down, inside the opponent’s
10-yard line. But that is the end of the similarities. In the first case, KC leads at home in the second quarter against one of the
weakest teams in the NFL. The Chiefs are off to a 0-2 start for the 2004 season. In contrast, against the Chargers in week 8
of the 2005 season, Kansas City is being touted as a playoff contender. But on the road they trail by 11 points late in the game
against the defending AFC West Champions.
The variables that go into these critical decisions are many: ball position, score, time remaining in the game, the relative
strengths of the two infantries, historical precedence, momentum, and maybe even the expectations of loyal followers. The
assessment of which variables are more, less, or non-important is paramount to an optimal decision. How could a head coach
or even the combined efforts of the entire coaching staff process all of these variables in a short time and come up with the
right decision? Even possessing a photographic memory would prove ineffective. The fact is that with the exception of the first
few plays of each half, nearly every situation (i.e. field position, score, time remaining, etc.) of every NFL game has no identical
historical equivalent.
Zeus™ is an extremely powerful analytical tool developed by EndGame Technologies in 2004. It was specifically designed to
assist NFL coaches in assessing critical play-calling decisions. Not only can ZeusTM answer binary questions such as “go for
it or kick?” but it also provides insight into any play of any NFL game, past or present. Fewer than 13,000 games have been
played in the history of the National Football League. Unlike interactive football simulations that require approximately the
same time as a real game, Zeus™ can perform the equivalent of the entire history of the NFL in one second on an off-the-shelf
laptop computer. Zeus adjusts quantitatively for the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams, both for the average
tendencies and the extreme short timescale variations. Let’s see what Zeus™ has to say about the above two situations.
Coach Vermeil’s acceptance of responsibility for the loss to Houston in 2004 was noble but misstated. Even after coming up
short and turning the ball over on downs, the Chiefs were a 2-to-1 favorite against an equal opponent. Kicking the field goal
wouldn’t have guaranteed a win. Contrary to “losing the game”, Vermeil’s decision actually increased Kansas City’s winning
chances by 2% on average. Although this may sound like an insignificant amount, fifty equivalent correct decisions would
amount to an expectation of a full extra win. Such decisions arise frequently in a typical NFL season. And with only 16 games
to succeed, in no other professional sport does a single win have such a huge impact. But as is typical, some fans and media
chastised Vermeil for making the “wrong” decision. In the game of second-guessing, the only right decision is the one that
succeeds.
In the recent game against the Chargers, considerably more than 2% game winning chances were up for grabs when the
Chiefs faced 4th and 2 from the San Diego 4 late in the game. Vermeil’s observation that the field goal brought his team within
one score was only part of the equation. Although trailing by 8 is considerably better than trailing by 11, one must consider the
possibility of trailing by only 3, or even by 5 if the 2-point conversion fails. But how, under game conditions, does one weigh all
the possible outcomes to arrive at the optimal decision? If one is human, the answer is “one can’t,” at least not on a consistent
basis. Zeus™ concludes that with the optimal decision the Chiefs are still more than a 4-to-1 underdog to beat the Chargers
but that going for it is 6% more likely to lead to a win than settling for the field goal. When it comes to defining a “critical play”
decision, it rarely gets more significant than this.
Dick Vermeil is one of the most successful and highly respected coaches in the NFL – one of a rare few who has led his team
to an NFL Championship. His play calling in critical situations is on par with the other Super Bowl Champion coaches.
Analysis of entire seasons of data by Zeus™ has shown that from the bottom to the top of the league, teams consistently fall
nearly a full game short of their potential due to their sub-optimal play calling decisions in critical binary situations such as
fourth downs, extra points, and kickoffs. With the inclusion of penalty acceptance/rejection, time out usage, and decisions of
1st through 3rd downs, the typical cost of suboptimal choices is over a game per season.
With this kind of value up for grabs, the game of football is ripe for an informational revolution. With the help of tools like
Zeus™, the game will never be played the same again…. it will be played better.