Desperate Situations Call for Desperate Measures Pigskinrevolution.com With 2:36 remaining in the 4th quarter on Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts trailed the visiting San Diego Chargers by 2 points.  Having just been pushed backwards on consecutive plays by the inspired San Diego defense, the Colts faced 4th and 24 from the Chargers’ 38 yard line.  Their choices were three:  1) make a 56 yard field goal and then prevent the Chargers from scoring, 2) attempt to continue the drive by passing on 4th and long and subsequently score, or 3) punt (giving the Chargers the ball deep), force a three-and-out possession, drive to field goal range and convert the field goal for the win.  Indianapolis decided on option 3, the punt. ZEUS  says that Indy’s chances of winning the game after a typical punt are 24%.  A missed field goal gives them 16% game winning chances (GWC).  A successful field goal is worth 62%.  Weighing these outcomes, the Colts need to be able to make a 56-yard field goal at least one time in six in order to make the field goal attempt correct compared to punting. Mike Vanderjagt, the most accurate field goal kicker in NFL history, has made 14 field goals in 21 attempts from 50 yards or longer during his eight year career with his longest being from 54 yards.  However, over the last three seasons he has attempted only two in this range (succeeding at one).  Could he make one of six from 56 yards out in the climate controlled RCA Dome? A similar analysis for the long pass option indicates that the break-even point is 19%.  That is, if the Colts can pick up the first down 19% of the time they are better off going that route instead of punting. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback currently playing in the NFL.  He may be the best quarterback in the history of the game.  Of course football is a team sport and a major part of Manning’s success can be attributed to a very strong offensive line and the overall best receiving crew in the league: Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, and Dallas Clark.  In a typical game situation, Manning completes approximately 35% of his long passes.  Late in the game on Sunday against the Chargers, did he have at least a 19% chance of connecting with one of his deep receivers? ZEUS  concludes that Indianapolis’s punt decision was a major error, costing them well over 5% GWC compared to either attempting the immediate field goal or going for the first down.  Putting the outcome of a game (and in this case, a chance at the rare perfect regular season) on a single do-or-die action can be difficult, but in this instance that was the proper decision.  Desperate situations need to be examined just as objectively as ordinary situations. Therefore, if the analysis says a desperate measure is in order, a team should call in that play and feel confident that they did the right thing regardless of the outcome.