Conventional Wisdom Failed Denver How many times have you heard the axiom, "Go for the tie when at home; try for the win when on the road," while watching an NFL game? One wonders if these thoughts go through a coach's mind when faced with a tough decision. A marquee match up of Week 13 was the Denver at Kansas City divisional rivalry game. Tied at the beginning of the fourth quarter and facing a fourth-and-2 from the Chiefs' 22-yard line, the Broncos went for the high-percentage field goal to take the lead. This decision concurs with the axiom, but is it really the right play choice? Jason Elam has built a reputation on his field goal kicking prowess. However, even assuming a 100 percent success rate, Denver's decision to settle for the field goal was still incorrect. Folding in the fact that even Elam can miss from 40 yards out, this decision cost the Broncos a very significant three percent Game Winning Chance (GWC) equity according to ZEUS. How can taking a sure lead be an incorrect decision? There are two major factors that need to be considered to understand why kicking the field goal is incorrect. The first key factor in Denver's decision is the time remaining in the game. Many decisions are made assuming that the current opportunity is a team's last chance, and that if successful, the opponent won't score. Neither of these assumptions was valid for Denver's play call decision near the beginning of the fourth quarter. Even if Denver failed to make the first down, they would still be tied, and a KC score would still allow Denver sufficient time to counter. The second key factor to consider is the field position the Chiefs would inherit if the fourth-down attempt failed. The potential for great rewards if the attempt succeeds far outweighs the cost it failed. Followers of conventional wisdom and axioms will never understand the real risk/reward tradeoffs of all the unique decisions that fall under their umbrella. There is no substitute for thorough analysis.