RISK, REWARD AND LOOSE ENDS BUCCANEERS CAPITALIZE ON REDSKIN BLUNDERS By PigSkinRevolution.com Football is a fascinating game of risk management.  Nearly every successful strategy is accompanied by the potential for a negative outcome.  Often these risks are apparent on the surface, but occasionally they lie just beneath our grasp.    Most coaches and fans will certainly recognize the impact of a loss of downs when a critical 4th down attempt fails.  However, the subtleties surrounding field position and clock are not quite as easy to capture.  In the “eyes” of the computer model no variable goes unnoticed.  When ZEUS™ examines a critical play, each and every relevant variable is considered.  If we look closely enough, we sometimes discover hidden gems of knowledge. Such was the case this past Sunday, when ZEUS™ decided to take a peek at the final minutes of the battle between the Buccaneers and Redskins.  Trailing by 7 points with just less than one minute remaining in the game, Tampa Bay scored a potentially game saving touchdown.  Surely, no one was surprised when they lined up for the extra point to tie the game.  As the Washington Redskins carelessly took the field to prepare a token defense for the P.A.T, they were charged with a delay-of-game penalty – five yards to be assessed on the ensuing kickoff.  We’ll check back on this seemingly harmless error in a moment.  But first, let’s examine the games most controversial situation.  In an overzealous attempt to block the extra point, the Redskin’s defense jumped offside.  Now Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden had something very important to decide.  He wisely placed his offensive unit back on the field to attempt the 2- point conversion from the 1 yard line.  A successful conversion subsequently placed the Buccaneers in clear command of the game. ZEUS™ overwhelmingly approves of Gruden’s decision.  The choice to go for 2 is a whopping 7% Game Winning Chance (GWC) better than electing the extra point option.   In other words, on average the chosen play will result in a win 7% more often than a simple P.A.T.  To put it in proper perspective, imagine your disappointment if your favorite NFL team just marched down the field to score a game tying touchdown with 12 minutes remaining in an important game only to have the kicker flub the extra point that would have given them the lead.  According to ZEUS™, that would be a 7% GWC error! But the game wasn’t over yet.  Washington was still going to get the ball with just under one minute remaining, possessing two timeouts and needing at least a field goal for the win.  Their offense had to get inside Tampa Bay’s 30 yard line for any realistic chance to win the game.  Considering a typical NFL kickoff is returned to the receiving team’s 30 yard line, Washington would need to travel about 40 yards to attempt the field goal.  Remember that harmless little delay-of-game penalty?  It turns out that not only does it matter, but it matters significantly.  With help from the extra five yards, Tampa Bay’s Matt Bryant booted the ball deep into the end zone resulting in a touchback.  Now instead of the Redskins starting from a standard expectation of the 30 yard line, they began their quest at the 20.   This difference goes unnoticed by nearly everyone.  Everyone that is, except ZEUS™.   ZEUS™ does indeed notice the kicker’s accomplishment.  In fact, the difference between Washington beginning their drive on the 20 yard line compared to the 30 yard line is worth 5% more wins for Tampa Bay.  Matt Bryant was certainly not assured of kicking a touchback with the 5 yard enhancement but it helped tremendously.  Kickers receive many accolades when they make the winning field goal, and equivalently endure much criticism when they fail.  However, the ability to prevent the opposing team from fielding a kickoff is of great value as well.  In this case, nearly as much as being able to bust it over the goal line from one yard out. A wise man once said, “It is with life’s loose ends by which we form the rope to hang ourselves”.   This week, the Redskins provided all the rope the Buccaneers needed.