| Week 7 Critical Play Review Pigskinrevolution.com There were several interesting plays that occurred during yesterday's NFL action. ZEUS takes a closer look at 3 of them: Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta: Kicking the Field Goal on 3rd Down When the Falcons marched down to the Steeler's 14 yard line on their first possession in overtime the game was clearly well in hand. Conventional wisdom suggests that kicking the field goal on 3rd down is prudent as a botched snap can be recovered for another try. On the other hand, sacrificing a down may cost a few yards of field position which could have otherwise boosted the kicker's success rate. It may seem like splitting hairs, but we thought this was worth a look. First of all, the botched snap is rare and furthermore the Falcons will not be assured of recovering it. Also, a botched snap, when it is recovered, will sacrifice field position. When the Falcons attempt to run one more play they risk the fumble. However, on average, they pick up a couple of extra yards which makes the high percentage field goal attempt even more likely. VERDICT: ZEUS likes running the ball on 3rd down by about 0.6% GWC Indianapolis vs. Washington: 4th and Goal at the End of the First Half At the end of the first half trailing 14-10 the Colts faced a 4th and goal on the Redskin's 1 yard line. Sound familiar? We have been harping on this classic error for 2 years now. Not so fast! This situation is a bit different than the typical 4th and short in deep opposing territory. Because of the clock, the Colts can not gain from the resulting field position of a failed TD attempt as they typically might. VERDICT: UNDER further Review by ZEUS. The revised result will be posted shortly Cincinnati vs. Carolina: Marvin Lewis' "Gutsy" Gamble Yes it's true. We don't think teams go for it often enough on 4th and short. But Marvin Lewis (in case he was listening) may have taken this advice a bit too far. Trailing by 4 with 9:14 remaining in the game, the Bengals had a 4th and 1 on the Panther's 35 yard line. This is the territory where coaches typically face difficult decisions. Punts generally don't gain much. It's a bit long for a field goal. And, well we know these guys don't like going for it very often. Remarkably, Lewis had Carson Palmer throw long to a diving Chad Johnson resulting in a 1st and goal on the Carolina 3 yard line. A few minutes later, the struggling Bengals secured a victory and regained 1st place in the AFC North. It probably comes as no surprise that we concur with going for it in this situation, but what does ZEUS think about Lewis' aggressive strategy? Not much it appears. Unless he has a read on the defense that there is an unusually strong likelihood of succeeding on a long pass attempt, the Bengals should simply choose the optimum path to the 1st down. Either a simple run or short pass should do the trick. Here is some perspective on the decision: Bengals GWC, 1st and 10 on the Panthers 33 yard line: 41.8% Bengals GWC, 1st and goal on the Panthers 3 yard line: 56.0% Bengals GWC, Carolina 1st and 10 on their own 35 yard line: 25.1% The downside of the 2 choices is nearly identical. The Panthers will take over with about 9 minutes remaining on the their 35 yard line and a 4 point lead. Incrementally, the Bengals gain 16.7% GWC on a simple 1st down conversion and 30.9% GWC on a successful long pass (the one that actually occurred). Therefore, the 1st down conversion has to be 1.85 times more likely to occur than a completed long pass, in order to be correct. ZEUS doesn't think this is even remotely close. Marvin Lewis and his staff may have seen something different on the field, but judging by the swirling wind in the stadium and the difficulty of Johnson's catch the long pass was very speculative. VERDICT: Big Error. Running the ball for the 1st down is correct by ~ 3% GWC |