The Kitna Factor Pigskinrevolution.com It didn’t take long for the plot to thicken in yesterday’s playoff matchup between the Bengals and the Steelers.  Just over 4 minutes into the game, Carson Palmer suffered a knee injury during a 66 yard pass play to Chris Henry.  With Jon Kitna now in command, the Cincinnati offense pressed closer to the Steeler’s goal line.  The Bengals were facing a 3rd and goal from the Steeler’s 10 yard line with 7:20 remaining in the first quarter when an interesting development occurred.  Kitna completed a short pass advancing the ball to the 5 yard line when the Bengals were called for an illegal motion penalty.  Bill Cowher quickly declined the penalty and the Bengals converted a short field goal for a 3 – 0 lead. It would be difficult for anyone to take issue with Cowher’s decision to decline this penalty.  For an NFL kicker, there is little difference between converting a field goal from the 15 yard line vs. the 5 yard line.  Accepting the penalty would only give the Bengal’s one more crack at the touchdown while providing them a similar field goal opportunity should they fail.  In fact, the Steeler’ s would only gain in accepting the penalty if the Bengals turn the ball over.  In balance, Cowher’s decision seems clear. The more interesting choice comes from the perspective of the Bengals.  Marvin Lewis didn’t seem to give a second thought to bringing his field goal unit on the field the moment the penalty was declined.  Why would he risk squandering 3 certain points with his second-string quarterback facing a 4th and 5?  Considering the loss of Palmer, Lewis was certainly not going to miss the opportunity of scoring first. With Carson Palmer in the line up, ZEUS would charge the Bengals with a significant error (1.3% GWC) for choosing the field goal.   But what about with Jon Kitna at the helm?   Jon Kitna is certainly no Carson Palmer, but just how much should his presence affect this critical decision?  It turns out that even if we assume the Cincinnati passing game has become the poorest in the NFL in the hands of Kitna, ZEUS still slightly favors going for the end zone on 4th and 5.   The crucial aspects of this decision are unseen by most fans.  Without Palmer, Cincinnati is certainly less likely to convert the 4th down.  However, they will also be less likely to convert future opportunities.  This is why optimizing their field position at this early juncture of the game is so critical.  Additionally, even a failed conversion attempt will provide a very advantageous field position for the Bengal defense. Surely, Marvin Lewis did not think the presence of Jon Kitna degraded the Bengal’s passing game to the worst in the NFL.  He has proven himself a capable performer in the past.  In fact, Lewis likely would have chosen the field goal even with Palmer in the game.  As we have seen from ZEUS analysis over the past several weeks, these types of errors are a recurring theme among NFL coaches.  In this latest example, the injury to Palmer and the insertion of Kitna only magnifies the point.