Opening Thoughts on the 2007-2008 Season pigskinrevolution.com The 2006-2007 NFL season was a monumental year at pigskinrevolution.com.  ZEUS was featured in a number of high profile publications including ESPN.com, ESPN Magazine, Wired Magazine, Wall Street Journal,  New York Times, Technology Review,  Christian Science Monitor, Business Week, Esquire and The Sporting News.  Our Critical Call Index was launched at the conclusion of the season to the rants and raves of the NFL faithful.  ZEUS’ analysis of Super Bowl XLI confirmed the premonitions of some Colt skeptics while bringing jeers from others as we dissected some unnecessarily conservative play-calling on the part of Tony Dungy.  Most importantly, we learned a great deal more about the inner strategies of NFL coaches through the execution of millions of ZEUS simulations.   Along the way, we learned a bit about the thought processes of the typical NFL fan as well.   ZEUS seems to have taken on an identity all its own.  Love it or hate it, ZEUS is the most objective and accurate method available for assessing many categories of play-calling decisions.  As we have written many times on our webpage,  ZEUS does not represent the opinion of a bunch of football analysts.  It is simply a tool that processes information more accurately and far faster than any human - amateur or professional. With the 2007 season now in full swing, we will continue to provide weekly commentaries and post-game analysis.   Our Critical Call Index will be updated more frequently providing our readers with some objective insight into the proficiency of NFL coaches.  Additionally, we will be launching the pigskinrevolution.com Bulletin Board which will allow readers to discuss interesting coaching decisions and game strategies with other fans, while having the opportunity to submit problems directly to ZEUS. This season has been quick to provide drama.  We can’t go without mentioning the “technological” advancements of the New England Patriots.  When we wrote about the under utilization of proven technology at the beginning of last season , we weren’t talking about videotaping the opposing sidelines!  Admittedly, we find it fascinating that the Patriots would take such an underhanded risk, when according to the CCI they left over  ½ of a game on the table as a result of suboptimal play-calling on 4th downs.  That is ½ game of expected value that could have been completely avoided with the legal tutoring of ZEUS. Since we wouldn’t feel right about posting our first commentary of the season without at least doing a bit of ZEUS analysis, we will take a look at a couple of interesting choices from this past weekend- one pro, and one college. With less than 7minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter of the Patriots/Chargers game, the Chargers faced a 4th and goal at the 1 yard line while trailing 24-0.  Not so amazingly, Al Michaels and John Madden debated the merits of the “aggressive” alternative to the field goal.  “Normally, I am not the type who likes to gamble on 4th down, but I think you have to here” said Madden.  Michaels seemed to concur.  If you have been following ZEUS, you probably already know the answer to this one.  While a field goal attempt would represent a horrendous decision, it is worth noting that the Chargers have very little game equity to start with (about 2.5% GWC).   To Choose a field goal would drop their GWC to about 1.2%.  This may not seem like a lot, but consider this is more than half of their available winning chances  Congratulations, John and Al!! The Kentucky and Louisville game was a particularly exciting affair, especially for those of us who reside in the Bluegrass state.  After Woodson’s splendid late game heroics, the Wildcats were in a dominating position.  They had just taken a 5 point lead with about 30 seconds remaining in the game on a thrilling pass play.  Seemingly without giving it a second thought, Coach Brooks kicked the extra point to go up by 6 points.  The announcer astutely picked up on the fact that this made absolutely no sense.  It would take a highly improbable touchdown by Louisville after the ensuing kickoff to win the game and it scarcely makes a bit of a difference whether Kentucky leads by 5 or 6.  A 7 point lead however (after a successful 2 point conversion) makes quite a difference.  After all we are not talking about an average quarterback here, this is heisman favorite Brian Brohm.  Louisville managed to get the ball all the way to the 5 yard line before they ran out of clock.  As is so often the case, if you win the game then all is forgotten. Of course as we know from good decision theory principles, this was a terrific blunder regardless of the outcome.   While the choice to kick the PAT only mattered a few fractions of a percent, it still represented nearly half of the slim chance Louisville had at their disposal.  The choice to go for 2 was would have had almost negligible down-side  with the remote exception of a fumble recovery or interception and a  98 yard TD return. So please continue to check back with us frequently.  This should be a very exciting season as we look forward to answering your questions and comments with our soon to be launched Bulletin Board feature.