THE OLD COLLEGE TRY
Pigskinrevolution.com
Up to this point all of our articles on pigskinrevolution.com have covered the NFL. The college game is different in
some ways, but critical situations arise there as well. Here are four that came up on Saturday.
Trailing by six points with 2 ½ minutes remaining on the road against Purdue, the Minnesota Golden Gophers chose to
punt facing 4th and 13 from their own 37. Minnesota had three timeouts remaining (Purdue had two). There is no 2
minute warning timeout in the NCAA, but the clock does stop after a 1st down, so let’s call that a wash. With NFL rules
and assuming equal teams, ZEUS™ says Minnesota’s decision to punt cost them 4% game winning chances (GWC).
The obvious risk is that they’ll never get the ball back, and that is actually what happened.
But before the game ended, Purdue had a critical decision of their own. Facing 4th and 1 from the 67 (Minnesota’s
33), they could try a very long field goal, go with a “safe” punt (likely a touchback), or attempt to keep possession and
ice the game. (Minnesota had by then used all three of their timeouts.) The Boilermakers ran for the first down
(successfully as it turned out) which was the correct decision by 1% GWC compared to a field goal and 0.5% over
punting. (It is worth noting that Purdue would have been a prohibitive favorite regardless of what play they chose, so
although 1% GWC doesn’t sound like much, it was a major part of Minnesota’s chances.)
In an interdivisional battle, Colorado was surprising Georgia in Athens, leading 13-7 with 5 ½ minutes remaining.
Georgia faced 4th and 3 from Colorado’s 10 yardline. A chipshot fieldgoal would have reduced Colorado’s edge to 3
points, but Georgia correctly attempted to gain the first down. As it turns out, they failed and Colorado gained
possession but that didn’t last long and Georgia took advantage on their next opportunity to score the game winning
touchdown.
If Georgia had failed to win the game, their decision to go for the 1st down on 4th and 3 would likely have led to major
second-guessing in the national and local press. ZEUS says that the field goal attempt would have sacrificed a
whopping 11% GWC had they incorrectly chosen that path! But since Georgia won, all is forgiven and forgotten.
Finally, the nationally televised primetime game on ABC pitted Notre Dame against their nemesis of recent years,
Michigan State. The Spartans jumped out to a sizable early lead and maintained it throughout most of the game
despite the Irish’s efforts to neutralize it. With 6:35 remaining in the 3rd quarter, trailing by 10 points and facing 4th
and 8 from their own 61 (the Spartan 39), head coach Charlie Weis shunned the punt in an attempt to gain the first
down and continue the drive for a valuable score. The pass attempt failed and Michigan State took over. The second
guessing by the prescient TV announcers began with the usual trite and erroneous observations “why give the
opponent both good field position and momentum? There’s plenty of time to punt, stop them in their tracks, and regain
possession. Blah, blah, blah.” Well, the answer is because going for it wins more games. The punt is worse by 3%
compared to a pass attempt. Trailing by 10 points in the second half is the right time to be aggressive, unless your
primary goal is to lose gracefully. As it turns out, Michigan State did march down the field for a score but Notre Dame
made an amazing comeback scoring 19 points in the 4th quarter to pull out a longshot victory.