| Giving it Away in Tampa Bay pigskinrevolution.com Jon Gruden had 2 pivotal decisions during a loss to the Jaguars on Sunday. One critical 4th down occurred at the end of the first half and another with 5 minutes remaining in the game. Many fans will have an easier time remembering his choice to kick the field goal in the first half with a 4th down and inches, but it was his later decision that will place him in the ZEUS Hall of Shame. Let’s take a look at each choice: It may surprise students of ZEUS to see that this first choice is not a larger error. A common theme of major coaching blunders is settling for the “guaranteed” 3 points in a deep yardage situation. This particular example has 2 important exceptions. First, the Bucs are out of timeouts, and because of the clock, the resulting field position after a failed touchdown attempt doesn’t carry its normal weight. However, since it is possible to make a first down and spike the ball without the clock expiring, this position offers a bit more than one shot for the end zone. ZEUS identifies a clear error with the field goal attempt but it is certainly not as bad as some observers may have imagined. It the second situation, Gruden makes one of the worst play-calling decisions we have seen in years. He may have felt his choice was justified after downing the ball on the 3 yard line but he couldn’t be more wrong. To illustrate just how bad it is to punt in this situation, you only have to compare the GWC of the resulting situation (The Jaguars take over on their own 3 yard line with 4:47 remaining) to going for the first down (Bucs facing a 4th and 4 on the Jags 41). Even after a perfectly executed punt, the Bucs have sacrificed nearly 5% GWC! Obviously, they are not always so fortunate, and the decision to punt costs them nearly 11% GWC on average. To put the magnitude of this error in proper perspective, imagine the following hypothetical scenario. With a tie score the Bucs receive a kickoff to open the second half of a game. Instead of returning the kickoff, the receiving player turns around, runs the opposite direction, and takes a knee in his own end zone for a safety. That is also an 11% GWC error! We have credited Gruden in the past with making some gutsy and accurate calls in critical situations. Unfortunately, he suffered from what the Bucs' fans must hope was a temporary lapse of sound judgment on Sunday. |
|
| QUARTER |
CLOCK |
BALL POSITION |
DOWN |
YARDS TO FIRST |
TIMEOUTS |
PLAY CHOICE |
ERROR |
| 2 |
0:19 |
Jax 4 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
Field Goal |
-1.1% |
| 4 |
5:00 |
Jax 41 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
Punt |
- 10.8% |