The Line between Good and Great Pigskinrevolution.com When the CCI rankings were unveiled at the conclusion of last season, Tony Dungy posted one of the highest error rates in the league.  Many fans wondered how he could have ranked so low in his critical play-calling with such outstanding results.   After all, a high win percentage and a Super Bowl trophy speak volumes about the greatness of an NFL franchise.  Our argument then, as it is now, is that Dungy’s shortcomings are masked by a very talented squad.  Giving away 6-7% GWC per game on poor coaching decisions may go unnoticed if you are a 90% favorite on player talent alone.  However, when the game is a closely matched affair, as was the case against the Patriots on Sunday, it can be a very different story. In 2006, Bill Belichick performed 2-3% better per game on average than Tony Dungy did on critical calls.  When the teams lined up for their monumental match up, we suspected that this discrepancy could possibly turn out to be the difference in the game.  Consistent with our observations last season, Dungy made two very conservative choices in the first half that cost him more than 5% GWC.  In the first quarter, facing a 4th and goal on the Patriots 3 yard line the Colts took the 3 points for the first score of the game.  Again, in the 2nd quarter with a 4th and goal at the Patriots 7 yard line, the Colts chose the field goal to pull within a point.  ZEUS charges Dungy with an error in each instance with the earlier decision being worse by about a factor of 3 to 1.  These two decisions alone may have been the deciding factor in what was not surprisingly a very tight contest. It is ironic that the immense talent of the Colts which often compensates for these poor decisions also magnifies their cost.  Peyton Manning is one of the most efficient performers the NFL has ever seen.  His passing prowess, particularly in short yardage situations, is unmatched in today’s game.  The particular situational errors assessed to the Colts would have held true for the talents of any NFL roster.  However, they are particularly damaging when such a high powered offense is sent to the sidelines in favor of the kicking team.   The post game wrap up in most media outlets focused on the heroism of Brady and the epic struggle of opposing defenses.  Those dynamics may be important, but Dungy’s conservative play-calling in the early phases of the game likely was the most significant factor separating these two great teams.